Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Braxtom Hoover, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Florida writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they offer real value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I hope the CFTC will approach regulation in a way that allows these markets to thrive.
One of the main reasons I trade on prediction markets is to hedge personal financial risks. For instance, I run a small side business selling outdoor gear, and political decisions like tariffs or trade policies can hit my costs hard. By trading on event contracts tied to election outcomes or policy changes, I can offset some of that uncertainty. It's not gambling, it's a practical tool, much like how farmers hedge crop prices. Beyond my own use, I see prediction markets as a powerful way to get information that's just not available elsewhere. I've noticed time and again that the forecasts on these platforms are way more accurate than what I hear from polls or pundits on TV. That kind of insight helps everyone, not just traders, by giving a clearer picture of what might happen in politics or the economy.
I also think the U.S. needs to stay competitive in financial innovation. If we over-regulate or shut down prediction markets, we'll just push this activity offshore to unregulated platforms where there's less oversight and more risk. I'd rather see the CFTC create rules that keep these markets safe and accessible here at home. I know there are concerns about things like insider trading or manipulation, and those are valid worries. But the laws against those behaviors already exist, and the CFTC has the power to enforce them. Banning or overly restricting prediction markets to stop a few bad actors feels like punishing the rest of us who use these tools responsibly.
Looking at some of the specific questions in the ANPR, I want to address Question 7 on balancing innovation and consumer protection. I think the focus should be on targeted rules that address real risks without stifling the benefits of these markets. Also, on Question 15 about defining legitimate markets versus gaming, I believe prediction markets are clearly distinct from gambling since they require research and judgment, just like stock trading.
I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or over-restrict them. Let regular people like me continue to use these tools to manage risk and access unique information. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Braxtom Hoover
