Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Isaiah Mitchell, and I'm a regular citizen from Texas writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I believe that well-regulated prediction markets are valuable for people like me and for society as a whole. I appreciate the chance to weigh in on how the CFTC approaches this.
I rely on prediction markets because they often give better information than polls or pundits. I've seen firsthand how the prices on these platforms cut through the noise and reflect what people really think about events, whether it's an election or an economic indicator. This isn't just helpful for traders; its useful for anyone trying to make sense of the world, from journalists to regular folks making decisions. I think this ties into your questions 7 and 8 about the public interest and price discovery. These markets provide a unique kind of data transparency that we cant get elsewhere, and academic research backs this up. Studies have shown they aggregate information more accurately than traditional forecasting methods.
I'm also a big believer in the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, operating under CFTC oversight, are a safer bet than unregulated offshore sites. If you over-restrict or ban these markets, people will just go to less secure places, and thats worse for consumer protection. I think this relates to your questions 11 and 12 on balancing innovation with safety. Regulation should keep us safe, not push us into riskier corners of the internet.
Another thing I want to stress is that event contracts aren't gambling. I put time and thought into my trades, just like I would with stocks or other investments. These markets let me hedge against real-world risks, like policy changes that could hit my wallet. Calling this gaming feels off base, and I hope the CFTC considers this when looking at questions 15 and 16 about defining legitimate market activities.
I understand there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, but I believe the answer is proportionate regulation, not broad bans. Target the specific risks instead of shutting down entire categories of contracts. Your existing tools to fight fraud and manipulation can be adapted here, as discussed in questions 1 and 29. Don't punish everyone for the actions of a few bad actors.
In closing, I urge the CFTC to support prediction markets with fair, targeted rules that protect consumers while allowing innovation. These markets give us better information, a way to manage uncertainty, and a stake in understanding the world around us. Please dont over-restrict or ban them. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Isaiah Mitchell
