Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Vikram Agarwal, and I'm a business owner from Alabama. Im writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets in the United States, and I want to explain why they matter to me and my business, as well as to the broader public.
As a small business owner, Ive used prediction markets to manage risks tied to political and economic events. For instance, Ive relied on platforms like Kalshi to hedge against potential policy changes from elections that could impact my supply chain costs or local regulations affecting my operations. These markets give me a way to protect my business from uncertainty, much like how farmers hedge against crop prices. Beyond my own needs, Ive seen firsthand how prediction markets provide forecasts that are often more accurate than polls or pundits. That kind of information isnt just helpful to traders like me; its valuable to everyone, from policymakers to regular folks trying to make sense of the world.
I believe prediction markets are a democratized tool, opening up access to information and risk management that used to be reserved for big institutions. Thats a good thing. Shutting down or over-restricting these markets would push activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which are far less safe for consumers. Id much rather see the CFTC regulate these markets properly here in the U.S., ensuring transparency and fairness, than lose that oversight to foreign entities. Plus, the U.S. should be leading the way in financial innovation, not handing that advantage to other countries.
I also want to address a few specific concerns raised in your ANPR. On the idea of classifying event contracts as gaming, as discussed in questions 15-22, I strongly disagree. These contracts serve real economic purposes like hedging and price discovery, just as stock or commodity trading does. Theyre not gambling; they require research and judgment about real-world events. On the topic of insider trading and manipulation from questions 29-32, I believe informed trading actually improves price accuracy and benefits everyone. Besides, the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle manipulation and insider trading in other derivatives markets. Use those tools, dont ban entire categories of contracts. Broad bans punish honest participants like me and solve nothing.
I urge you to adopt proportionate, targeted regulations for prediction markets rather than restrictive or categorical prohibitions. Keep platforms like Kalshi operating under clear rules that protect consumers while fostering innovation and access. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Vikram Agarwal
