Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Kyle Simmons, and I'm a software engineer from Florida. I'm writing to express my support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I'm relatively new to these markets, but as someone who works in tech and values data-driven insights, I see their potential to benefit society and individuals like me.
I believe prediction markets offer unique value that you can't find elsewhere. Their forecasts on elections and public events have consistently outperformed polls and pundits. That kind of accuracy helps everyone, from regular citizens to policymakers, make better decisions. As a tech professional, I also appreciate how these platforms aggregate information efficiently for price discovery. Beyond that, they allow individuals and businesses to hedge real financial risks, whether it's an election outcome impacting taxes or a policy change affecting a small business. I might not trade huge volumes, but having the freedom to participate in a legal, regulated market feels like a fair and democratic way to engage with events that impact my life.
I want to address a concern I've heard about these markets being akin to gambling. I don't see it that way. Trading on prediction markets requires research and judgment about real-world events, much like investing in stocks. Classifying event contracts as "gaming" (as raised in Questions 15-22) ignores their legitimate economic purpose, like hedging and information gathering. And while gambling addiction is a serious issue, I don't think it's the government's role to protect us from every personal choice. Especially under a GOP-led administration, shouldn't we prioritize individual rights over government overreach?
I'm also worried about the risks of over-restricting or banning these markets. If the CFTC imposes broad categorical bans instead of targeted rules (as discussed in Questions 23-28), it will push activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which are far less safe than regulated markets like Kalshi. The U.S. should lead in financial innovation, not cede ground to other countries. On insider trading and manipulation concerns (Questions 29-32), I believe the CFTC already has strong tools to address bad actors. Banning entire markets to stop a few cheaters punishes the rest of us. Plus, informed trading often improves price discovery, benefiting everyone.
I urge the CFTC to adopt proportionate regulations that address specific risks without stifling innovation. Prediction markets are a powerful tool for forecasting, hedging, and civic engagement. Let's keep them accessible and safe under U.S. oversight.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Kyle Simmons
