Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Gabriel Capen, and I'm a healthcare professional from Michigan. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. As someone who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi, I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets in the United States, and I urge the CFTC to adopt a balanced approach that fosters innovation while addressing real risks.
In my line of work, I deal with uncertainty every day, whether it's about patient outcomes or shifts in healthcare policy. Prediction markets have become a valuable tool for me to better understand the likelihood of events that impact my life and profession, like election results or regulatory changes. I've found that the forecasts on these platforms are often far more accurate than traditional polls or pundit opinions. For example, during the last election cycle, I relied on market data to gauge potential policy shifts that could affect healthcare funding in Michigan. The numbers cut through the noise and gave me clarity I couldn't find elsewhere. This kind of information isn't just useful to traders like me; it benefits everyone who needs reliable insights into the future.
I also believe that the US has a chance to lead the way in financial innovation. If we over-restrict or ban prediction markets, we're not just stifling a useful tool, we're handing the advantage to other countries. I'd hate to see this industry pushed offshore to unregulated platforms where there's no oversight or consumer protection. Regulated markets like Kalshi, operating under CFTC rules, are a much safer bet for people like me who want to participate legally and transparently. Banning or overly restricting these markets won't stop them; it will just drive activity to less accountable places.
On the topic of risks, I understand the concerns about manipulation or insider trading, as raised in some of your questions, like numbers 29 to 32 on inside information. But the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle these issues in other derivatives markets. I believe those same powers can be applied here without resorting to broad prohibitions. Shutting down prediction markets to stop a few bad actors feels like punishing everyone for the actions of a few.
I'm particularly drawn to your questions 7 to 14 on public interest. I think prediction markets serve a clear public good by democratizing access to information and forecasting. They also give ordinary citizens like me a way to engage with important events in a meaningful way. I ask that you consider these benefits as you craft rules.
In closing, I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Let's keep them legal, safe, and accessible under your oversight, rather than pushing them out of reach. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Gabriel Capen
