Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Chance Thammaracksa, and I'm a student from Connecticut with a strong interest in economics and financial markets. I'm writing to comment on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. As someone who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi, I want to express my support for well-regulated prediction markets and urge the CFTC to adopt a balanced approach that fosters innovation while protecting consumers.
I first got into prediction markets as a way to test my understanding of real-world events, from elections to economic indicators. What struck me was how these markets often predict outcomes more accurately than polls or pundits. I've seen this firsthand on Kalshi, where the collective wisdom of traders cuts through media noise and gives a clearer picture of what's likely to happen. This isn't just useful for me as a student studying these topics; it's valuable for society as a whole. The data and insights from prediction markets should be accessible to everyone, not locked away for big institutions.
I also want to stress that these markets aren't gambling, no matter what some might say. Trading on event contracts takes research and analysis, much like trading stocks or commodities. I'm not rolling dice; I'm making informed decisions based on data and trends. Plus, regulated platforms like Kalshi provide a safe, transparent space to participate. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets, people like me will be pushed toward unregulated offshore platforms with no oversight. Thats a much bigger risk to consumers than anything happening on a CFTC-registered exchange.
On the topic of risks, I know there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading. But the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle these issues in other derivatives markets. I believe those same tools can be adapted for prediction markets without resorting to broad prohibitions. Shutting down an entire market to stop a few bad actors feels like punishing everyone for the mistakes of a few. Instead, focus on enforcing the rules you already have.
I'm also worried about the US falling behind in financial innovation. As a student, I want to see my country lead in cutting-edge markets, not cede that ground to other nations. Prediction markets are a powerful tool for forecasting and risk management. Let's not stifle them before they can fully develop. Im particularly interested in the academic side, too. The data from these markets is a goldmine for research, and I hope the CFTC considers how transparency can benefit students and scholars like me, as raised in questions 7 and 8 of the ANPR about public interest and innovation.
In closing, I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Protect consumers by keeping these markets regulated and onshore, but don't ban or over-restrict them. Let students, researchers, and everyday people like me continue to participate in a legal, transparent way.
Sincerely,
Chance Thammaracksa
