Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Tom Hill, and I'm a trader and investor based in Texas. I've been in the markets for a while now, mostly focusing on stocks and commodities, but I've also used prediction markets a few times to get a handle on things like election outcomes and economic indicators. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, published in the Federal Register as 91 FR 12516. I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets, and I want to share why I think the CFTC should focus on proportionate regulation instead of heavy-handed restrictions.
As someone who makes a living analyzing and trading on information, I can tell you that prediction markets offer something unique. They aggregate insights from a wide range of people, often giving a clearer picture than polls or expert opinions. I've used them to inform my own decisions, like gauging the likelihood of policy changes that could affect my portfolio. This isn't gambling to me. It takes research and judgment, just like any other investment. Plus, the ability for regular folks like me to participate, not just big institutions, makes the information more reliable and accessible. I think that's a net positive for everyone.
What really matters to me is the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. I've seen firsthand how these platforms can operate under clear rules, like on exchanges registered with the CFTC. Banning or over-restricting them would just push activity to unregulated offshore sites, which helps no one. I'm also not worried about the risks of manipulation or insider trading, and here's why. The CFTC already has robust tools to tackle those issues. You have the authority to go after market manipulation under existing laws, and insider trading by federal employees or others is already illegal. Shutting down entire markets to stop a few bad actors feels like using a sledgehammer to crack a walnut. It punishes honest traders like me instead of targeting the real problem.
I noticed a few of the questions in the ANPR that relate to my concerns. For instance, in Topic Area A, Question 1 asks about preventing manipulation in event contracts. I believe your current enforcement powers are enough if applied consistently. And in Topic Area E, Question 29 about inside information, I think the focus should be on enforcing existing bans rather than creating new barriers to market access. Let's not reinvent the wheel when the tools are already there.
I urge the CFTC to support prediction markets with fair, targeted regulations that address specific risks without stifling innovation or blocking everyday traders from participating. Keep these markets legal and regulated here in the U.S. so we can all benefit from the information they provide.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Tom Hill
