Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Tyler Miller, and I'm just a regular guy from North Carolina writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I believe these markets are valuable tools that shouldn't be over-regulated or shut down. I appreciate the chance to weigh in on this.
I started using prediction markets because I wanted better information about things like elections and other big public events. Polls and pundits are often wrong, but the prices on these markets cut through the noise. They're not perfect, but they've helped me get a clearer picture of what's likely to happen, whether it's a presidential race or a major policy change. This isn't just useful for me; I think it helps everyone, from regular folks to decision-makers, by putting real, aggregated data out there. It's not gambling, either. Trading on these platforms takes research and thought, just like investing in stocks. Classifying event contracts as "gaming" feels wrong when they serve a real economic purpose, like price discovery.
I also believe that informed trading makes these markets better, not worse. When people with good information trade, the prices get sharper, and that benefits everyone who looks at them, even if they don't trade themselves. I understand the concern about insider trading, but that's already illegal, and the CFTC has tools to deal with it. Banning or restricting these markets because of a few bad actors would hurt regular users like me who are just trying to make sense of the world. On a personal level, I remember using Kalshi last year to gauge the odds of a tax policy change that could have hit my budget hard. The market gave me a heads-up that no news outlet did, and I was able to plan accordingly.
I noticed some of the questions in the ANPR, like Question 8 on public interest and price discovery, and Question 29 on informed traders. I think prediction markets clearly serve the public by providing better forecasts, and informed trading helps that process, as long as it's legal and fair. I'd urge you to focus on enforcing existing rules against manipulation and insider trading rather than limiting these markets as a whole.
In closing, I ask that the CFTC support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or overly restrict them. They're a unique tool for people like me to understand and navigate uncertainty, and with the right oversight, they can keep benefiting society. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Tyler Miller
