Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is James Stein, and I'm an everyday citizen from New Hampshire. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times myself, and I strongly support their continued availability under fair, proportionate regulation. I believe these markets provide unique value, and I hope the CFTC will craft rules that protect consumers without stifling innovation or pushing activity out of reach.
I've always believed in the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Prediction markets aren't just a hobby for me; they've offered a way to think through real-world risks. For instance, I once traded on a market tied to an election outcome because I was worried about how certain tax policies might hit my household budget. It wasn't a game, it was a way to offset uncertainty. I know small businesses use these markets too, to hedge against regulatory or economic shifts. That kind of practical use shouldn't be shut down.
I'm also concerned that banning or over-restricting prediction markets will just push activity to offshore platforms. I've seen unregulated sites out there, and they don't have the safeguards a CFTC-registered market like Kalshi offers. If the US clamps down too hard, regular folks like me lose access to safe, transparent venues, and the bad actors win. We should be encouraging well-regulated markets here, not driving them away.
On top of that, I think the US needs to lead in financial innovation. If we over-regulate or block prediction markets, we're handing the future of this technology to other countries. I've read about how these markets aggregate information better than polls, often giving more accurate forecasts. That benefits everyone, from regular citizens to policymakers. Informed trading, even by those with strong insights, improves price discovery. It's not a flaw, it's a strength, as long as manipulation is policed, which the CFTC already has tools to do.
I'd like to address a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 7, regarding balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think the focus should be on clear rules for transparency and anti-manipulation, not broad bans. And on Question 29, about inside information, I believe informed traders often make markets more accurate, so long as existing laws against insider trading are enforced.
I appreciate the CFTC taking the time to gather public input. Prediction markets have real value for hedging risks and improving information. Please support proportionate regulation that keeps these markets accessible and safe for Americans like me, without over-restricting or driving innovation offshore.
Sincerely,
James Stein
