Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is William Guo, and I'm just a regular citizen from Texas writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been trading on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket for a while now, and I strongly support well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they provide unique value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I hope the CFTC will craft rules that allow these markets to thrive without over-restricting them.
As someone who follows elections and public events closely, I find prediction markets incredibly useful. The prices on these platforms often give me a clearer picture of what's likely to happen than any poll or news pundit. This isn't just helpful for traders; its valuable information for everyone, from regular folks making personal decisions to policymakers who need accurate forecasts. Ive seen firsthand how my own trades, based on research and reading, contribute to better price discovery. When informed traders participate, the market reflects reality more accurately, and that benefits all of us. I think this ties directly to your questions 7 and 29 in the ANPR about public interest and the role of informed trading in price discovery.
I also want to stress that regulated markets like Kalshi are a much safer option than unregulated offshore platforms. I've used both, and the difference is night and day. On a regulated platform, I know there are rules in place to protect against manipulation and fraud. If the CFTC clamps down too hard or bans certain contracts, people like me will just move to offshore sites where theres no oversight at all. Thats worse for everyone. This connects to your questions 7 and 8 on balancing innovation with consumer protection. Regulation should keep us safe, not push us into riskier spaces.
Im not blind to the concerns about insider trading or manipulation, but I dont think the answer is to shut down prediction markets. Those issues are already illegal, and the CFTC has the tools to enforce the law. Punishing all traders for the actions of a few bad actors doesnt seem fair. Plus, theres solid academic research showing how these markets aggregate information efficiently. Id hate to see that potential lost because of overly strict rules.
Im just an everyday person who sees real value in these markets, not just for myself but for better public decision-making. I urge the CFTC to create proportionate regulations that address specific risks without banning or over-restricting prediction markets. Lets keep platforms like Kalshi operating under clear, fair rules that protect users and encourage innovation.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
William Guo
