Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jeromy Ferguson, and I'm a small business owner from Louisiana. I run a local hardware store, and like many folks in my line of work, I have to keep an eye on things like economic policies, elections, and other public events that can impact my costs and customer demand. I'm writing to comment on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm new to these markets, but I strongly support them being regulated in a fair and balanced way, not banned or overly restricted.
I first got interested in prediction markets because I saw how they can provide information you just can't get anywhere else. Polls and pundits often get things wrong, but these markets seem to cut through the noise with prices that reflect what people really think will happen. For someone like me, knowing the likelihood of an election outcome or a new policy can help me plan better, whether it's stocking inventory or bracing for tax changes. I've read that prediction markets have been more accurate than traditional forecasts time and again, and I think that's a public good for everyone, not just traders.
Beyond forecasting, I see real value in how these markets let individuals and businesses like mine hedge against risks. If an election or a federal decision could hit my bottom line, having a way to offset that uncertainty financially is a lifeline. It's not gambling, it's practical. I spend hours researching market trends and policy news to make decisions for my store, and trading on a prediction market would use those same skills. It's no different from any other kind of investment based on real-world events.
I know there are concerns about things like insider trading or manipulation, and I get that. But those issues are already illegal, right? The CFTC has the power to go after bad actors without shutting down entire markets. Banning prediction markets to stop a few cheaters feels like punishing everyone else who uses them honestly. I also think it's better to have these markets regulated here in the U.S., where there are rules and oversight, instead of pushing people to offshore platforms with no protections.
I'm particularly interested in your questions about the public interest, like in Questions 7 and 8 of the ANPR. I believe prediction markets serve a real purpose by helping with price discovery and risk management, and that outweighs the risks if you regulate them properly. I'm asking you to support proportionate rules that let these markets operate while addressing specific problems with targeted enforcement, not broad bans.
Thank you for considering my perspective. I hope the CFTC will move forward with regulations that encourage innovation and access for regular people like me, without overreacting to potential downsides.
Sincerely,
Jeromy Ferguson
