Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Tiyah Adams, and I'm an everyday citizen from Utah. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm pretty new to prediction markets, having just started exploring platforms like Kalshi, but I already see their value and potential. I believe they can become a regular part of my financial planning, and I want to support a framework that allows for their safe, regulated use.
I think prediction markets are important because they provide information that's hard to find elsewhere. From what I've read, their forecasts on elections and public events often beat polls or pundits. That kind of accuracy isn't just helpful for traders like me; it can guide better decision-making for everyone, from regular folks to policymakers. I also appreciate that these markets let someone like me participate in a legal, regulated space. It's not about gambling, it's about using research and judgment to make informed bets on real-world outcomes, much like investing in stocks. Classifying event contracts as "gaming" feels wrong to me; they have real economic purposes, like helping people understand and prepare for future events.
I'm also convinced that regulated markets, like Kalshi, are much safer than the alternative. If the CFTC bans or over-restricts these markets, I worry activity will just move to unregulated offshore platforms where there's no oversight or consumer protection. That seems like a step backward. Instead, keeping these markets under CFTC supervision ensures transparency and fairness. Plus, I've learned from academic research that informed trading actually improves price discovery. When people with good information trade, it makes the market's predictions sharper, and that benefits everyone, not just the traders.
I'd like to address a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think regulation should focus on protecting users while still allowing new ideas to grow. And on Question 15, regarding defining gaming versus legitimate markets, I strongly believe event contracts aren't gaming; theyre tools for forecasting and managing uncertainty. I hope the CFTC considers these points.
In closing, I ask that you support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or overly restrict them. Create rules that address specific risks while letting regular people like me participate in a safe, transparent environment. I believe this approach will keep the U.S. leading in financial innovation and ensure better information for everyone.
Sincerely,
Tiyah Adams
