Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Andrew Schertz, and I'm just a regular guy from Wisconsin writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm not some Wall Street big shot or a lawyer, just an everyday citizen who's new to prediction markets but sees a lot of value in them. I hope you'll consider my perspective.
I support well-regulated prediction markets because they offer something unique. From what I've read, their forecasts often beat out polls and pundits when it comes to accuracy. That's huge for regular folks like me who want better information to make decisions, whether it's about personal finances or just understanding what's happening in the world. Plus, I think it's important that everyday people can participate in these markets. It's not fair if only big institutions get access to this kind of insight. Keeping it open to everyone makes the data better and levels the playing field a bit.
I'm also worried about my own financial risks. Life is unpredictable, and being able to hedge against things like policy changes or economic shifts through a prediction market could really help. It's not gambling, it's planning. And honestly, I'm tired of the government sticking its nose into everything. We've got enough to deal with without more heavy-handed rules. If there are concerns about insider trading or manipulation, fine, use the laws already on the books to crack down on bad actors. Don't punish the rest of us by banning or over-restricting these markets.
I also want to touch on a couple of specific questions from your ANPR. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think regulation is the answer, not bans. Platforms like Kalshi, which are CFTC-registered, are a safer bet than unregulated offshore sites. If you over-restrict here, you're just pushing people like me to riskier places online. And on Question 14, about the US role in financial innovation, I strongly believe we should be leading the pack. We can't afford to let other countries take the reins on this while we drag our feet.
There's solid academic research backing prediction markets too. They help aggregate information in a transparent way, which benefits everyone, not just traders. So my ask is simple: support proportionate regulation that keeps these markets safe and accessible. Don't ban them or pile on restrictions that kill their potential. Let regular folks like me have a fair shot at using them.
Thanks for reading my thoughts.
Sincerely,
Andrew Schertz
