Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Joshua Flinton, a retired U.S. Marine Corps Combat Correspondent from Utah. I've spent much of my life committed to the free flow of information, especially when it serves the public interest. That's why I'm writing to express my strong support for proportionate regulation of prediction markets, as outlined in your Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). As someone who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi, I see firsthand how these markets provide valuable, transparent information that benefits not just traders like me, but society as a whole.
Prediction markets aren't just a hobby for me; they're a tool for better understanding the world. I've seen them consistently outshine polls and pundits when it comes to forecasting elections and major public events. That accuracy matters. It helps regular folks like me make informed decisions, whether it's about personal finances or just staying engaged with what's happening. Beyond that, these markets let me hedge real risks. For instance, I can offset uncertainties around economic policies or events that might impact my retirement savings. This isn't gambling, no matter what some might say. Trading on Kalshi takes research and judgment, much like any other investment. Classifying event contracts as "gaming" would be a mistake; they serve legitimate economic purposes, like price discovery and risk management.
I also believe strongly in the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, under CFTC oversight, are far safer than unregulated offshore alternatives. If the CFTC bans or over-restricts prediction markets, you're not stopping the activity; you're just pushing it to less transparent, riskier venues. The U.S. should be leading in financial innovation, not handing that edge to other countries. Plus, the CFTC already has solid tools to tackle issues like manipulation and insider trading. Use those existing powers instead of broad, heavy-handed bans. Informed trading, by the way, isn't a problem; it improves price discovery and makes markets more accurate for everyone.
I'm particularly drawn to your questions in Topic Area B (Questions 7-14) on balancing innovation with consumer protection, and Topic Area C (Questions 15-22) on defining what constitutes gaming versus legitimate markets. I urge you to prioritize innovation and recognize that event contracts aren't games of chance; they're grounded in real-world analysis. Academic research backs this up, showing how prediction markets aggregate information efficiently. That data transparency is something I value deeply from my days as a combat correspondent.
In closing, I ask the CFTC to support well-regulated prediction markets with targeted, proportionate rules. Don't ban or overly restrict them. Keep platforms like Kalshi accessible to everyday Americans like me, and ensure the U.S. remains a leader in this space. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Joshua Flinton
