Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Oscar Anastacio, and I'm just a regular citizen from California writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times, and I believe they have real value, especially when they're properly regulated. I want to urge the CFTC to support well-regulated prediction markets instead of over-restricting or banning them.
I first got into prediction markets because I wanted better information about elections and public events. Polls and pundits often get things wrong, but the prices on these markets seem to cut through the noise. They've helped me make sense of what's likely to happen, whether it's a presidential race or a major policy change. This isn't just useful for me; I think it benefits everyone when we have access to more accurate forecasts. It's not gambling, either. It takes real research and thought to participate, just like any other kind of investing.
What worries me is the idea of pushing these markets underground. I've seen unregulated offshore platforms out there, and they're a lot riskier than something like Kalshi, which operates under CFTC oversight. If we over-regulate or ban prediction markets here in the US, people like me won't stop looking for ways to participate. We'll just end up on shadier sites with no protections. Regulated markets are safer, with rules to prevent manipulation and fraud. The CFTC already has tools to handle bad actors, so let's not punish everyone by shutting down the good platforms.
I'm particularly interested in your questions about public interest, like those in Questions 7 to 14. I think prediction markets serve the public by giving us better information and letting regular people have a voice in forecasting important events. They're not just for big institutions. As for concerns about manipulation or insider trading, I get that those are real risks. But banning entire markets isn't the answer. Those issues are already illegal, and the CFTC can enforce existing laws without throwing out the baby with the bathwater.
I also want to touch on Questions 23 to 28 about procedural aspects. I believe the CFTC should focus on specific risks for each contract rather than making blanket prohibitions. That way, you can protect consumers without stifling innovation.
In the end, I'm asking you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Keep platforms like Kalshi operating under clear rules, and don't let over-regulation drive activity to unsafe, offshore sites. Thanks for taking the time to read my comment and consider my perspective.
Sincerely,
Oscar Anastacio
