Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Evin Sweets, and I'm a trader and investor based in California. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and I wanted to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets, and I hope my perspective as someone who uses these markets regularly can help inform your approach.
For me, prediction markets aren't just a hobby or a way to make a quick buck. They're a critical tool for hedging personal and business financial risks. For example, I've used Kalshi to trade contracts tied to economic indicators like inflation data or Fed rate decisions. These outcomes directly impact my investment portfolio and personal finances, like when I'm planning major purchases or managing debt. Being able to hedge against those uncertainties gives me a sense of control and stability that I can't get from traditional investments alone. I know I'm not the only one who sees this value; many small traders and business owners rely on these markets for the same reasons.
Beyond personal use, Im struck by how prediction markets consistently produce more accurate forecasts than polls or pundits. I've seen this firsthand. During the last election cycle, I watched Kalshi's contract prices on various outcomes shift in ways that reflected real-time sentiment far better than any news outlet or survey. That kind of aggregated wisdom is invaluable, not just to traders like me, but to anyone who needs reliable information, whether it's journalists, policymakers, or the public. It's a democratizing force, letting regular people like me contribute to and benefit from a clearer picture of the future.
I understand there are concerns about things like insider trading or market manipulation, and I don't dismiss those. But I believe the CFTC already has strong tools to address bad actors, as noted in questions 29-32 of the ANPR about inside information. Banning or over-restricting these markets because of a few potential issues would hurt honest participants like me and push trading to unregulated offshore platforms, which is worse for everyone. On the public interest questions, like 7-14, Id urge you to weigh the clear benefits of innovation and price discovery against the risks. Targeted rules to prevent abuse make more sense than broad restrictions.
I hope the CFTC will support proportionate regulation that allows prediction markets to thrive while addressing specific concerns. These markets are too useful to everyday people and society at large to be stifled. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Evin Sweets
