Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Truman Teichgraeber, and I'm a student from Oregon writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. As someone studying in an academic environment, I've come to see the value of prediction markets not just as tools for individuals, but as sources of unique data and insight. I've used platforms like Kalshi a few times myself, and I believe that with the right oversight, these markets can serve a real public good. I'm asking you to support proportionate regulation rather than heavy restrictions or outright bans.
I care deeply about the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Prediction markets aren't just a niche hobby; they offer a way for regular people like me to engage with real-world events in a meaningful way. More than that, as a student, I see how the data from these markets can fuel academic research. The aggregated predictions often outpace polls or expert opinions in accuracy, providing transparent information that scholars, journalists, and even policymakers can use. Banning or over-regulating these markets would choke off a valuable resource for understanding public sentiment and forecasting outcomes.
I also want to stress that regulated markets like Kalshi are far safer than the alternative. If the CFTC clamps down too hard, people won't just stop trading; they'll turn to unregulated offshore platforms with no oversight, no consumer protections, and no accountability. I've read enough to know that pushing activity into the shadows creates more risks, not fewer. Keeping these markets under CFTC supervision ensures transparency and fairness, which benefits everyone.
On the topic of informed trading, I believe it actually improves price discovery, as raised in Questions 29-31 of your ANPR. When people with knowledge or insight participate, the market prices reflect reality more accurately. That doesn't just help traders; it helps anyone who relies on those prices for information. Of course, insider trading based on nonpublic information is a concern, but it's already illegal under existing laws. The CFTC has tools to enforce against bad actors without punishing the entire market. Shutting down prediction markets to stop a few cheaters would be like closing libraries because some people misuse books.
I'm not blind to the risks of manipulation or misuse, but I trust that the CFTC can address those with targeted rules rather than broad prohibitions. Prediction markets have a unique role in democratizing information and fostering engagement, and as a student, I see their potential to contribute to research and public knowledge. I urge you to regulate them thoughtfully, keeping platforms like Kalshi accessible and under proper oversight, so that people like me can continue to participate safely and responsibly.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Truman Teichgraeber
