Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Bhavin Gupta, and I'm a student from Indiana. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets in the United States. I believe they offer real value to society and to individuals like me, and I hope the CFTC will approach regulation in a balanced way.
As a student, Ive always been fascinated by how information gets aggregated and turned into something useful. Prediction markets do that better than almost anything else Ive come across. Ive seen firsthand how platforms like Kalshi often produce forecasts that are more accurate than polls or pundits on TV. Whether its an election outcome or an economic indicator, these markets cut through the noise and give a clearer picture of whats likely to happen. Thats not just helpful for traders like me, its valuable for everyone who wants to understand the world better.
I also want to push back on the idea that event contracts are gambling. To me, trading on these markets is about research and judgment, not luck. I spend time reading up on issues, analyzing data, and making informed decisions, just like someone investing in stocks. These contracts serve real economic purposes, like price discovery and even hedging against uncertainty. Calling this gaming feels like a misunderstanding of whats actually happening.
Im worried, though, about what happens if the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets. Ive seen unregulated offshore platforms out there, and theyre nowhere near as safe or transparent as a regulated market like Kalshi. If the U.S. clamps down too hard, people like me will just get pushed to those riskier venues. That doesnt protect anyone. Instead, I think the CFTC should focus on proportionate rules that target specific problems, like manipulation or insider trading, without throwing out the whole concept of prediction markets. I also believe the U.S. has a chance to lead in financial innovation here. We shouldnt cede that ground to other countries by being too cautious.
Looking at some of the questions in the ANPR, I want to address a couple from the Public Interest section, like Question 7 on balancing innovation and consumer protection. I think regulated markets already strike a good balance by providing oversight while letting new ideas flourish. And for Question 15 in the Listed Activities section, about defining gaming, Id argue that event contracts arent gaming at all when theyre tied to real-world outcomes and economic value.
I urge the CFTC to support prediction markets with targeted, fair regulation. Dont ban or over-restrict them. Keep the U.S. at the forefront of this space, and protect users by focusing on regulated platforms. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Bhavin Gupta
