Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Kyle Gronbeck, and Im a healthcare professional from Minnesota. Im writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. Im not a financial expert, but Ive been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and I believe they have real value, both for me personally and for society. I want to urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of these markets rather than imposing broad bans or overly restrictive rules.
One of my hobbies is predicting outcomes for golf events. Its fun, sure, but its also a serious exercise in research and judgment. I read up on players, weather conditions, and course history, much like someone might study a company before buying stock. To me, this isnt gambling; its a skill-based activity with real economic purpose. Prediction markets give me, and others like me, a way to test our knowledge and even hedge personal risks. For instance, Ive used these platforms to offset potential financial impacts from economic events, like inflation data affecting my familys budget. This isnt just play; its practical.
I also see broader value in these markets. They consistently produce forecasts that are more accurate than polls or pundits. Thats information everyone can benefit from, whether you trade or not. It helps with public decision-making and price discovery, something I think the CFTC should consider under Questions 7 and 8 in the ANPR about public interest. Plus, allowing informed trading, as mentioned in Questions 29 and 30, actually improves price accuracy. Its a net positive for all participants.
Im worried, though, about the idea of classifying event contracts as gaming (like in Questions 15-17). That label doesnt fit. These contracts serve legitimate purposes like hedging and information aggregation, not just entertainment. I also think the U.S. needs to lead in financial innovation. If we over-restrict or ban these markets, activity will just move to unregulated offshore platforms, which are far less safe than a regulated market like Kalshi. Id rather see the CFTC use its existing tools to tackle manipulation and insider trading, as you already have strong authority there. Thats a better approach than broad categorical bans, a point raised in Questions 23-28 on procedural aspects.
As someone who values both the personal and public benefits of prediction markets, I ask the CFTC to regulate them in a balanced way. Target specific risks with focused rules, but dont shut down or overly limit these markets. Lets keep the U.S. at the forefront of financial innovation while ensuring safety through oversight.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Kyle Gronbeck
