Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Eric Pruneda, and I'm a small business owner from Washington state. Im writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I strongly support the CFTC crafting proportionate regulations for prediction markets rather than imposing broad bans or overly restrictive rules.
As a business owner, I face constant uncertainty, whether its changes in tax policy, regulatory shifts, or economic indicators like inflation that hit my bottom line. Prediction markets give me a way to hedge some of that risk. For example, Ive used Kalshi to trade on election outcomes and Federal Reserve decisions, which directly affect my business planning and personal finances. These markets arent just a game to me. Theyre a practical tool, letting me offset potential losses from events I cant control. Honestly, the forecasts I see on these platforms often beat out polls or pundits in accuracy, and that real-time information helps me make better decisions.
I get that there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, but the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle those issues in other markets. Theres no need to reinvent the wheel, just apply what works. Banning or over-restricting prediction markets wont stop bad actors; itll just push trading to unregulated offshore platforms where theres no oversight at all. Id much rather trade on a regulated site like Kalshi, where there are clear rules and protections, than take my chances somewhere sketchy. And lets be clear, these event contracts arent gambling. They serve real economic purposes, like hedging and price discovery, just like other derivatives.
I also think the U.S. should be leading the way on financial innovation. If we clamp down too hard, other countries will step in, and well lose out. Plus, informed trading isnt a bug, its a feature. When people with knowledge trade, the prices get sharper, and that benefits everyone, not just the traders. Im looking at Questions 7 and 29 from your ANPR, about balancing innovation with consumer protection and the role of informed traders. My take is simple: regulate to address specific risks like manipulation, but dont throw out the whole market just because of a few potential problems.
I urge you to support prediction markets with targeted, fair rules that keep them safe and accessible. Dont let broad bans or overregulation drive this valuable tool underground or overseas. Thank you for considering my perspective as a business owner who relies on these markets.
Sincerely,
Eric Pruneda
