Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Lee Fuhr, and I'm just an everyday citizen from California writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they offer real value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I want to explain why I think the CFTC should regulate them proportionately instead of banning or overly restricting them.
First off, I've found prediction markets to be an incredible source of information that you just can't get from polls or pundits. I've seen firsthand how their forecasts on elections and public events often turn out more accurate than what you hear on the news. For example, during the last election cycle, I relied on market odds more than opinion pieces to get a sense of what might happen, and they were spot on. This kind of data isn't just useful for traders like me; it's valuable for everyone, from journalists to policymakers, who need clear signals about what the future might hold.
I also believe that having access to legal, regulated markets like Kalshi is a freedom worth protecting. These platforms are transparent and safe compared to unregulated offshore alternatives. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans prediction markets, I worry that activity will just move to shadier, less accountable sites where consumers have no protection. I've read about people losing money on offshore platforms with no recourse. Keeping these markets regulated here in the US ensures there's oversight and accountability, which is better for everyone.
On top of that, I think the US should be a leader in financial innovation. We shouldn't let other countries take the lead on something as promising as prediction markets. Academic research backs this up too; studies show these markets are great at aggregating information and producing transparent data. Why would we push that potential overseas?
I know there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and I get that. But the CFTC already has tools to address those issues, just like with other financial markets. I'd urge you to look at specific questions in the ANPR, like those in Topic Area B on public interest (Questions 7-14) and Topic Area E on inside information (Questions 29-32). My view is that targeted rules to prevent abuse make more sense than broad restrictions that hurt regular participants like me.
In closing, I ask the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Let's keep them legal and safe under US oversight, ensuring they can continue to provide accurate forecasts and innovative opportunities without driving activity offshore. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Lee Fuhr
