Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jamison Rogers, and I'm a trader and investor based in California. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and Im writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to your Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets provide unique value to individuals like me, businesses, and society as a whole, and I urge the CFTC to adopt proportionate regulations rather than broad restrictions or bans.
As someone who trades regularly, Ive seen firsthand how prediction markets produce forecasts that are often more accurate than polls or pundits. Whether its an election outcome or a major public event, the aggregated wisdom of these markets cuts through noise and bias in a way traditional sources just cant match. This isnt just helpful for traders; its better information for everyone, from policymakers to everyday citizens trying to make sense of the world. I also use these markets to hedge real risks that impact my investments, like political or economic shifts. Its not gambling, its a legitimate tool for managing uncertainty, much like trading stocks or commodities.
Im especially concerned about the idea of over-restricting or banning these markets, which I know the CFTC has considered in the past. If that happens, activity will just move to unregulated offshore platforms, which are far less safe for consumers like me. Regulated markets like Kalshi, under CFTC oversight, offer transparency and protection that offshore alternatives cant. Plus, the US should be leading in financial innovation, not ceding ground to other countries. Lets keep this market here, under proper supervision.
Regarding some of your specific questions, like those in Topic B on public interest (Questions 7-14), I believe prediction markets clearly serve the public by improving price discovery and risk management. On Topic C (Questions 15-22), I strongly oppose classifying event contracts as gaming. They have real economic purposes, like hedging and forecasting, and shouldnt be lumped in with gambling. And on Topic E (Questions 29-32), I think informed trading actually benefits price discovery; it makes the market smarter for everyone. The CFTC already has robust tools to tackle manipulation and insider trading in other derivatives markets. Use those tools here instead of broad bans that punish honest participants.
I understand there are risks, like potential manipulation or insider issues, but banning or over-restricting these markets isnt the answer. Targeted, proportionate rules can address specific problems without killing the benefits. I hope the CFTC will support a framework that lets prediction markets thrive under fair oversight, keeping them safe, transparent, and accessible to traders like me.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Jamison Rogers
