Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Suleman Shah, and I'm just a regular citizen from Idaho writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm not an expert or a big investor, just someone who believes these markets can be a positive force if regulated properly. I've only recently learned about prediction markets, but I'm excited about their potential and want to see them supported in a way that works for everyday people like me.
I think prediction markets are valuable because they often give more accurate forecasts than polls or pundits. I've seen how election predictions or public event outcomes on platforms like Kalshi cut through the noise of talking heads on TV. That kind of clear information helps me make sense of what's happening, whether it's a national election or a policy change that might affect my community. Better information isn't just good for traders; it helps all of us make smarter decisions, even if we're just watching from the sidelines.
I also believe strongly in the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Why should only big institutions or insiders get access to tools like this? Platforms like Kalshi, under CFTC oversight, are a safer bet than unregulated offshore sites where there's no accountability. If we over-restrict or ban these markets, people will just go elsewhere, and that's riskier for everyone. Keeping them regulated here in the US also means we stay competitive in financial innovation. I don't want to see other countries take the lead while we fall behind.
Another point that matters to me is that prediction markets aren't just speculation. They help people and businesses hedge real risks. For instance, a small business owner in Idaho might use these markets to offset uncertainty around a federal policy or election outcome that could impact their costs. That's not gambling; it's practical. I don't think event contracts should be labeled as gaming. They serve a real economic purpose, like price discovery and risk management, just as much as other investments do.
I'd like to address a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think the CFTC should focus on strong oversight without shutting down access. And on Question 15, regarding defining gaming versus legitimate markets, I urge you to recognize the economic value of event contracts and not lump them in with gambling.
In closing, I ask the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or over-restrict them. Keep them accessible, safe, and under your watch so people like me can benefit from better information and fair participation. Thank you for considering my views.
Sincerely,
Suleman Shah
