Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Waleed AlJohar, and I'm a student and academic based in Texas, the land of the free. I'm writing to express my strong support for the proportionate regulation of prediction markets as outlined in the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). As someone who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi, Ive seen firsthand the value these markets provide, and I believe the CFTC has a chance to craft rules that foster innovation while protecting consumers.
Prediction markets are not just a niche interest for me; theyre a powerful tool for understanding the world. Ive used platforms like Kalshi to trade on election outcomes and other public events, and Im consistently amazed at how these markets produce forecasts that are often more accurate than polls or pundits. This isnt gambling, no matter how some might label it. It takes research and critical thinking, much like trading stocks or commodities. Classifying event contracts as "gaming" ignores their real economic purpose, like helping individuals and businesses hedge risks. For instance, Ive placed trades to offset personal financial uncertainties tied to policy changes, and I know others who do the same for their small businesses.
I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Banning or over-restricting prediction markets wont stop people from trading; itll just push activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which are far riskier. Regulated markets like Kalshi offer transparency and accountability, and thats where I feel safe putting my money. The US should be leading in financial innovation, not ceding ground to other countries. As a student, Ive read the academic research on how informed trading in these markets improves price discovery, benefiting everyone, not just traders. This aligns with questions 7 and 29 from the ANPR, on balancing innovation with consumer protection and the role of informed traders in price accuracy.
Im not blind to the concerns about manipulation or insider trading. But the CFTC already has robust tools to tackle these issues in other derivatives markets, and those can be adapted here without resorting to broad categorical bans. Targeted regulation, not prohibition, is the answer. This ties to questions 1 and 33, on core principles for preventing manipulation and appropriate classification of event contracts.
Prediction markets give us better information for decision-making and a way to manage real risks. I urge the CFTC to support their growth with fair, proportionate rules that keep these markets safe and accessible. Dont let heavy-handed restrictions drive this innovation offshore or limit the publics access to valuable data.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Waleed AlJohar
