Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jacob Wright, and I'm a small business owner from Mississippi. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I want to share why I support well-regulated prediction markets and urge you to adopt proportionate rules rather than overly restrictive bans.
As a business owner, I rely on accurate information to make decisions, whether it's about economic trends or political events that could impact my taxes or regulations. I've found prediction markets to be an incredible tool for forecasting, often more reliable than polls or pundits. For example, during the last election cycle, I used Kalshi to gauge outcomes that could affect my business planning. The market prices gave me insights I couldn't find anywhere else, and they turned out to be spot on. This isn't just useful for me; it's valuable for society when better information is out there for everyone.
I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Trading on prediction markets isn't like gambling, especially not like sports betting, which I find far more predatory. On platforms like Kalshi, I'm using research and judgment, much like I do when making business investments. It's a fair system that lets regular folks like me have a stake, not just big institutions. Plus, regulated markets are safer. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans these platforms, people will just turn to unregulated offshore sites, which have no oversight and pose real risks to consumers.
I'm also concerned about U.S. competitiveness. We should be leading in financial innovation, not handing that advantage to other countries. The CFTC already has strong tools to tackle issues like manipulation and insider trading in other derivatives markets. I believe those can be adapted for prediction markets without resorting to broad categorical bans. Targeted rules that address specific risks make more sense and won't punish honest participants like me.
In response to some of your specific questions, like those in Topic Area B on public interest (Questions 7-14), I think prediction markets clearly serve the public by improving price discovery and risk management. And on Topic Area D (Questions 23-28), I urge you to handle public interest determinations on a case-by-case basis rather than with blanket prohibitions that could stifle innovation.
I appreciate the CFTC's efforts to get this right. Please support proportionate regulation of prediction markets and avoid bans or overly restrictive rules that would harm regular traders and push activity offshore. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Jacob Wright
