Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Riley Ladanne, and I'm an everyday citizen from Washington state, currently serving in the military. I'm writing to comment on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets and want to share my perspective as someone who's used these platforms a few times and values the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets.
In my military role, I'm always watching how events unfold, both here at home and abroad. Prediction markets give me a unique window into what's coming, whether it's an election outcome or a major policy shift. I've found their forecasts to be way more accurate than polls or pundits on TV. I remember checking a platform before the last election, and the market's probability on certain candidates was spot-on, while the talking heads were all over the place. That kind of insight isn't just helpful to me; it's valuable to anyone trying to make sense of the world.
I also believe event contracts aren't gambling. They're about research and judgment, not luck. When I trade on these platforms, I'm looking at data, reading up on issues, and making informed calls, just like I would with any investment. Calling this "gaming" doesn't make sense to me. It serves a real purpose, especially for forecasting public events that affect my life and my family's future. Plus, informed trading by people who know what's going on actually improves price discovery, which benefits everyone in the market, not just the traders.
I'm also concerned about access. As a regular person, I want the freedom to participate in these markets on regulated platforms like Kalshi. They're safe, transparent, and accountable, unlike unregulated offshore sites. If we over-restrict or ban prediction markets, people will just go to those sketchy platforms instead, and that's worse for everyone. The US has a chance to lead in financial innovation here. We shouldn't hand that advantage to other countries by clamping down too hard.
I'd like to address a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think regulated markets already strike that balance by providing oversight while allowing access. And on Question 15, regarding defining gaming versus legitimate markets, I urge you to recognize that event contracts have economic value through forecasting and shouldn't be lumped in with gambling.
In closing, I ask the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or overly restrict them. Keep them accessible to regular folks like me under a clear, fair framework. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Riley Ladanne
