Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Devin Bell, and I'm an everyday citizen from Florida. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times myself, and I strongly support their continued operation under fair and balanced regulation by the CFTC.
I believe prediction markets are incredibly valuable for producing accurate forecasts about elections and other public events. I've seen firsthand how their predictions often beat out polls or pundits on TV. That kind of information isn't just useful for traders like me; it helps everyone make better decisions, from regular folks to policymakers. Its a tool for clearer thinking about the future, and I think thats something worth protecting. Plus, allowing regular people like me to participate in these markets feels right. Its not fair if only big institutions get access to this kind of insight.
I also want to stress that event contracts aren't gambling. When I trade on a platform, I'm not just tossing dice. I'm researching, reading up on issues, and making judgments based on real-world events, much like I would with stocks or other investments. These markets serve a real purpose, like price discovery and even hedging against uncertainties that affect my life. Calling this gaming feels like a misunderstanding of what theyre about.
On the topic of regulation, Im all for consumer protection, but I think the answer is smart, targeted rules, not broad bans. Regulated markets, like Kalshi, are far safer than unregulated offshore platforms where people might turn if the U.S. cracks down too hard. If we push activity overseas, we lose oversight and put users at risk. The U.S. should be leading the way in financial innovation, not handing that advantage to other countries. Id rather see the CFTC focus on proportionate regulation that addresses specific risks, like manipulation or insider trading, without shutting down entire categories of contracts.
I also believe informed trading helps everyone by improving price discovery. Addressing some of your specific questions, like those in Topic Area B (Questions 7-14) about public interest and Topic Area E (Questions 29-32) on inside information, I think the benefits of better information outweigh the risks as long as existing laws against insider trading are enforced. And on Topic Area C (Questions 15-22), I urge you not to classify these contracts as gaming when they clearly have economic value.
I hope the CFTC will support prediction markets with fair rules that keep them accessible and safe. Please dont over-restrict or ban them outright. Theyre a powerful tool for forecasting and decision-making, and I want to see the U.S. stay at the forefront of this space.
Thank you for considering my views.
Sincerely,
Devin Bell
