Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Christopher Pia, and I'm a sales professional from New York. I'm writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi, and I believe these markets provide unique value that shouldn't be stifled by overly restrictive rules.
As someone in sales, I rely on understanding trends and public sentiment to do my job well. Prediction markets have consistently given me better insights into elections and other public events than polls or pundits. The aggregated forecasts are just more accurate, and that benefits not only traders like me but anyone who wants reliable information. I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi operate under CFTC oversight, which makes them far safer than unregulated offshore alternatives. If we ban or over-restrict these markets, people will just turn to those less safe options, and that helps no one.
Im also aware of the academic research backing prediction markets. Studies show they improve data transparency and price discovery, which is good for society as a whole. Informed trading isn't a flaw; its what makes the prices meaningful. Addressing Questions 29-32 in your ANPR, I believe informed traders enhance market accuracy, and the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle insider trading or manipulation without resorting to broad bans. Theres no need to reinvent the wheel when existing safeguards can be adapted.
On the topic of classification, raised in Questions 33-40, I strongly feel event contracts shouldn't be labeled as gaming. They serve real economic purposes like forecasting and hedging, much like other derivatives. Calling them gaming dismisses their value. Plus, the US should be a leader in financial innovation. If we over-regulate, we risk ceding that role to other countries, and I dont want to see that happen. Regarding Questions 15-22 on listed activities, I think the focus should be on proportionate, targeted rules for specific risks, not categorical prohibitions that punish legitimate participants.
I've seen firsthand how prediction markets democratize access to information. Shutting them down or making them too hard to access would be a step backward. I urge the CFTC to support balanced regulation that protects consumers while allowing these markets to thrive. Dont let over-restriction push activity offshore or limit the benefits they bring to people like me.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Christopher Pia
