Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Emily Hernandez, and I'm a regular citizen from California writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm new to prediction markets, but I strongly support their existence under fair, regulated conditions, and I want to explain why I believe the CFTC should encourage these markets with balanced rules rather than heavy restrictions.
I first heard about prediction markets through news articles discussing how platforms like Kalshi can forecast events, often more accurately than polls or TV pundits. That caught my attention because Ive seen how often traditional forecasts get things wrong, whether its elections or economic trends. If these markets can aggregate information from lots of people and produce better predictions, thats a public good. Its not just for traders; it helps everyone make sense of an uncertain world. I also believe that allowing everyday folks like me to participate in these markets is fair. If only big institutions get access, they hoard the insights, and thats not right.
Another reason I support this is safety. Id much rather see prediction markets operate on regulated platforms like Kalshi, under the CFTCs oversight, than get pushed to shady offshore sites where theres no protection. Regulation keeps things above board, and I trust the CFTC already has the tools to handle issues like manipulation or insider trading. Ive read that these are already illegal, so why not focus on enforcing those rules instead of banning entire categories of contracts?
On that note, I dont think event contracts are gambling. Theyre not like slot machines or betting on a football game. They take research and judgment, just like investing in stocks. Plus, they serve real purposes, like hedging against risks or discovering what people truly think about an events likelihood. I worry that labeling them as "gaming" could unfairly shut them down. And isnt it true that informed trading actually makes prices more accurate? That benefits everyone, not just the person trading.
I noticed a few of the CFTCs questions in the ANPR that relate to my views. For Question 15, on defining gaming versus legitimate markets, I urge you to recognize event contracts as economic tools, not games of chance. For Question 29, about inside information, I think informed trading often improves price discovery, and existing laws already address bad actors. And for Question 7, on balancing innovation and consumer protection, I believe regulated markets strike the right balance by encouraging new ideas while keeping participants safe.
Im asking the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Please dont ban or over-restrict them. Let regular people like me have the freedom to participate in legal, regulated spaces where our input can contribute to better information for everyone.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Emily Hernandez
