Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
Why does the government always have to ruin everything?
My name is Joshua Davis, and I'm a finance professional based in Georgia. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and I'm writing to express my strong support for proportionate, well-thought-out regulation of these markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets provide unique value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I want to share why I think the CFTC should regulate them without imposing overly restrictive bans.
As someone who works in finance, I rely on accurate information to make decisions every day. Prediction markets have consistently proven to be more reliable than polls or pundits when it comes to forecasting things like election outcomes or major public events. I've seen firsthand how the aggregated wisdom of traders on platforms like Kalshi often cuts through the noise of media speculation. This isn't just useful for traders; it benefits everyone who needs clear signals about the future, from businesses to policymakers.
I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, under CFTC oversight, offer a safe space to trade event contracts, unlike unregulated offshore alternatives where there's no accountability. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets, I worry that activity will just get pushed to those less safe venues. I've traded enough to know that event contracts aren't gambling. They serve real economic purposes, like hedging risks or gaining insight into complex issues. Calling them "gaming," as discussed in Questions 15-22 of the ANPR, ignores their legitimate role in price discovery, something I see as akin to other derivatives markets I've worked with.
On the topic of manipulation or insider trading, raised in Questions 29-32, I believe the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle bad actors. Informed trading actually improves price accuracy, benefiting all participants, and existing laws already prohibit federal employees or others from abusing nonpublic information. The answer isn't to shut down markets; it's to enforce the rules you have. I'm also concerned about U.S. competitiveness, as touched on in Questions 7-14. If we over-regulate, we risk ceding financial innovation to other countries. America should be leading the way on this.
I urge the CFTC to adopt targeted, proportionate regulations that address specific risks without broad categorical bans. Keep markets like Kalshi accessible and safe for regular traders like me, and don't let over-restriction push innovation or activity offshore. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Joshua Davis
