Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Alfred Hernandez, and I'm just an everyday citizen from New Mexico writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I want to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets. They're not only a bit of fun for me, but they also help me out financially in a small way, and I believe they have real value for society.
Im not a financial expert or anything like that, just a regular guy who likes having the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Trading on prediction markets isn't gambling, in my view. It takes research and thought, just like when I decide to put money into a stock or make any other investment. I'm often looking at real-world events, like election outcomes or economic data releases, and making decisions based on what I learn. This isn't a slot machine; it's a tool that helps me hedge against things that could affect my budget, like inflation numbers impacting my grocery costs. I think the CFTC should recognize that event contracts serve legitimate economic purposes, as you discuss in Questions 15 to 22 about defining gaming versus legitimate markets.
I also worry that if we over-restrict these markets, people like me will get pushed to unregulated offshore platforms. I've seen ads for some of those sites, and they don't look safe at all. Kalshi, on the other hand, feels trustworthy because it's under CFTC oversight. Regulated markets are the way to go, and I hope you consider this when looking at Questions 7 to 14 on balancing innovation and consumer protection. Plus, I think the US should be leading the way in financial innovation. We shouldn't let other countries take the lead on something that could be a big deal for our economy.
I know there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, but I believe the CFTC already has solid tools to handle those issues, as you mention in Questions 1 to 6 on core principles. You don't need to ban or overly restrict prediction markets to deal with a few bad actors. Just use the rules you already have to crack down on anyone breaking the law. Shutting down these markets would punish regular folks like me who are just trying to make informed decisions.
I really hope you'll support proportionate regulation that lets prediction markets grow while keeping them safe and fair. Please don't ban or over-restrict them. Theyre valuable to me and, I think, to a lot of other people too.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Alfred Hernandez
