Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Tremayne Krause, and I'm just a regular citizen from Montana writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times, and I believe they have real value for people like me and for society as a whole. I'm asking you to support fair, proportionate regulation of these markets rather than banning or over-restricting them.
Living in Montana, I don't always have access to the kind of insider political analysis or big-city polling data that others might. That's why I appreciate prediction markets. They've often been more accurate on elections and public events than the talking heads on TV or the polls I see online. I remember checking a market last election cycle to get a sense of the odds, and it felt like a clearer picture than anything else out there. That kind of information isn't just useful for traders; it helps regular folks like me understand what's really going on. It also seems like better data for public decision-making, something we could all use more of.
I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, feel a lot safer than unregulated offshore sites. If you ban or overly restrict these markets, you're not stopping the activity; you're just pushing people like me to riskier places with no consumer protections. I'm all for regulation to keep things fair and safe, but shutting things down isn't the answer. Plus, the CFTC already has strong tools to stop manipulation and insider trading in other markets. I trust you can apply those same rules here without throwing out the whole concept.
On top of that, I don't see event contracts as gambling. They're more like investing with research and judgment. When people trade based on what they know, it makes the prices more accurate, which benefits everyone, not just the traders. This ties into your questions 7 and 29 from the ANPR about public interest and informed trading. I think these markets serve a real economic purpose through price discovery, and calling them "gaming" misses the point.
I'm worried that over-restricting prediction markets will hurt regular people who want to participate while letting offshore platforms take over. Please focus on rules that protect consumers and keep markets fair without shutting them down. I support well-regulated prediction markets and hope you'll craft policies that let them thrive under your oversight.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Tremayne Krause
