Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Chris Jonsmyr, and I'm a trader and investor based in California. I've been involved in various financial markets for years, and I've used prediction markets a few times to gauge outcomes on events like elections and economic data releases. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516) to express my support for well-regulated prediction markets in the United States.
I believe prediction markets offer unique value that you can't find elsewhere. They've consistently outperformed polls and pundits in forecasting real-world events, and that information benefits everyone, not just traders like me. These markets aren't gambling; they require research and judgment, much like trading stocks or commodities. I've used them to get a clearer picture of risks that could affect my investments, and I think democratizing access to this kind of tool is a strength. If only big institutions can participate, the insights stay locked away from regular people like me.
That said, I understand the concerns about consumer protection, and I agree there are risks. But banning or over-restricting prediction markets isn't the answer. Without proper regulation, activity will just move to unregulated offshore platforms, which are far less safe and lack any oversight. I've seen firsthand how offshore markets operate with little transparency, and I'd much rather trade on a CFTC-regulated platform where there are clear rules and protections. The US has a chance to lead in financial innovation here. If we don't, other countries will step in, and we'll lose the opportunity to set the standard for how these markets should work.
On specific points raised in the ANPR, I want to address Questions 7-14 under Public Interest. I think the CFTC should focus on balancing innovation with consumer protection by setting strong disclosure requirements and rules to prevent insider trading. I'm particularly concerned about insiders exploiting nonpublic information, and I'd support stricter regulations to monitor and penalize that behavior. Questions 29-32 on inside information are relevant here too. While informed traders can improve price discovery, there needs to be a clear line against abuse. The CFTC already has tools to tackle manipulation and insider trading in other markets; adapt those instead of broad bans. Shutting down prediction markets to stop a few bad actors would punish honest participants like me.
I'm asking the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Set clear rules, enforce disclosure, and prevent insider trading, but don't ban or overly restrict these valuable tools. Let's keep the US at the forefront of financial innovation while protecting consumers through strong, sensible oversight.
Sincerely,
Chris Jonsmyr
