Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Eric Carranza, and I'm a regular citizen from Washington state writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they serve a real purpose for people like me, and I hope the CFTC will create rules that let these markets thrive without over-restricting them.
I rely on prediction markets to get a clearer picture of what's happening with elections and other public events. Honestly, I've found the prices on these platforms to be more reliable than what I hear from pundits or see in polls. That kind of information isn't just helpful for trading, it's useful for understanding the world. I also value the freedom to participate in these legal, regulated spaces. As an everyday person, I don't have access to the fancy data or insider networks that big institutions do. Trading on a platform like Kalshi levels the playing field a bit, letting me have a stake in events that affect my life.
One thing I'm worried about is the idea of banning or heavily restricting these markets. If that happens, people won't just stop trading, they'll move to unregulated offshore platforms that are far less safe. I've seen what those sites look like, no oversight, no consumer protections. Regulated markets like Kalshi are transparent and accountable, and they keep activity under the CFTC's watch. Isn't that better than pushing it underground?
I also believe the CFTC already has solid tools to handle issues like manipulation or insider trading. I've read about your authority to go after bad actors in other derivatives markets, and I think those same powers can work here. There's no need for blanket bans when you can target specific problems. Plus, the US should be leading the way on financial innovation. If we clamp down too hard, other countries will step in and take the lead, and we'll miss out on the benefits.
I'd like to address a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think regulated markets already strike that balance by providing safeguards while allowing new ideas to grow. And on Question 29, regarding inside information, I believe the CFTC's existing enforcement powers can address any misuse without punishing the rest of us who trade in good faith.
In closing, I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Please don't ban or over-restrict them. Let people like me continue to participate in a safe, legal way, and keep the US at the forefront of this space. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Eric Carranza
