Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Parker Walsh, and I'm a trader and investor based in Georgia. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I strongly support well-regulated prediction markets and believe the CFTC should focus on proportionate regulation rather than broad restrictions or bans.
As a trader, I value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets like Kalshi. These platforms aren't just a hobby for me; they're a tool to hedge risks and gain insights that I can't find anywhere else. For example, I've used prediction markets to gauge potential policy changes that could affect my investments, like shifts in interest rates or election outcomes. The prices on these markets often predict events more accurately than polls or pundits, and that information helps me make better decisions. I believe this forecasting power benefits everyone, not just traders like me, because it creates a clearer picture of what's likely to happen in the world.
I'm also concerned about consumer protection, which is why I think regulation is so important. Regulated platforms like Kalshi have safeguards in place, like transparency and oversight, that make them far safer than unregulated offshore alternatives. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets, people like me won't just stop trading; we'll be pushed to less safe, offshore platforms with no protections. Thats a worse outcome for everyone. The U.S. should be leading the way in financial innovation, setting the standard for how these markets operate, not ceding that space to other countries with looser rules.
I also want to address a point from your questions, specifically Question 15 about whether event contracts should be seen as gaming. I dont think they are gambling at all. Trading on prediction markets requires research, analysis, and judgment, just like trading stocks or commodities. These contracts serve real economic purposes, like hedging and price discovery. And on the topic of insider trading from Question 29, I believe informed trading actually improves price accuracy, which helps all market participants. The CFTC already has tools to tackle manipulation or abuse; those should be enforced rather than banning entire categories of contracts.
I urge you to support proportionate regulation that keeps prediction markets accessible, safe, and innovative. Dont let over-restriction push activity offshore or stifle a valuable tool for everyday traders like me. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Parker Walsh
