Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Cristian Edwards, and I'm just an everyday citizen from California writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've dabbled in prediction markets a few times, mostly to make a little money but also to learn more about the world around me, and I believe they have real value that deserves fair regulation, not heavy-handed restrictions.
Ive found prediction markets to be incredibly useful for getting a clearer picture of whats happening, especially during elections or big public events. Honestly, the forecasts on these platforms have been way more accurate than what I see from polls or pundits on TV. Ive even used them to follow real-time events like sports outcomes, placing small trades to stay engaged. Its not just about the money for me; its about having access to information that feels more reliable and grounded in what people actually think. I believe this kind of insight isnt just good for me, but for everyone, including folks making decisions that affect us all. Its like a public tool for better understanding.
I also think the U.S. should be a leader in this kind of financial innovation. If we over-restrict or ban prediction markets, were just pushing people like me to unregulated offshore platforms that dont have any oversight. Id much rather trade on a regulated market like Kalshi, where there are rules to protect consumers, than take my chances somewhere sketchy. Regulation makes sense, but it needs to be balanced. The CFTC already has strong tools to deal with stuff like manipulation or insider trading in other markets. Why not use those same tools here instead of shutting things down?
Ive read some of the concerns out there, and I get that not everyone sees prediction markets the way I do. Some call it gambling, but to me, its different. It takes research and judgment, just like investing in stocks. Im not rolling dice; Im making informed choices. And on the issue of bad actors, I dont think banning these markets is the answer. Punishing everyone for a few cheaters doesnt seem fair. Your questions, like numbers 7 and 8 about balancing innovation with consumer protection, and 15 on defining whats gaming versus legitimate trading, really hit on these points. I hope youll consider that event contracts have real economic purposes, like price discovery, and arent just games.
Theres also solid academic research backing this up, showing how prediction markets pull together information in a way thats transparent and useful. I think everyone benefits when regular people like me can participate in legal, regulated markets. Its about freedom and access to something that actually helps us make sense of the world.
Im asking you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Please dont ban or over-restrict them. Keep them safe and accessible for people like me who value what they offer.
Sincerely,
Cristian Edwards
