Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jacob Baldridge, and I'm a trader and investor based in Ohio. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket for a while now, and Im writing to express my strong support for proportionate, well-thought-out regulation of these markets as outlined in the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these platforms offer unique value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I hope the CFTC will support their growth with fair rules instead of heavy-handed restrictions.
As a trader, Ive seen firsthand how prediction markets give better information than polls or pundits. Ive watched these platforms consistently outpredict so-called experts on election outcomes, economic data releases, and even weather events. This isnt just helpful for my own trading decisions; its valuable for anyone who needs reliable signals about the future, whether thats a business owner planning inventory or a regular person trying to understand whats coming. I also use these markets to hedge personal financial risks. For example, Ive placed trades on interest rate decisions to offset potential impacts on my investments. This isnt gambling; its a practical tool, just like trading futures or options.
Im also a firm believer in the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Prediction markets let everyday people like me have a stake in understanding and forecasting real-world events. If only big institutions get access, the best information stays locked away with them. Keeping these markets open and accessible makes the system fairer and the data better. Plus, I think the US should be leading the charge on financial innovation. If we over-regulate or ban these markets, were just pushing activity to offshore platforms with no oversight, and were handing the future of this technology to other countries.
I know there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and I get that. But the CFTC already has strong tools to handle those issues. Youve got the authority to go after bad actors in any regulated market, and those laws apply here too. Banning or over-restricting prediction markets to stop a few cheaters would punish the rest of us who are using these platforms responsibly. Id urge you to look at questions 29 through 32 in your ANPR, on insider information, and focus on enforcing existing rules rather than creating new barriers. Also, on questions 7 through 14 about public interest, I hope youll weigh the clear benefits of price discovery and risk management against the risks, which can be managed without shutting things down.
In short, Im asking the CFTC to support prediction markets with balanced regulation that addresses real risks without stifling innovation or access. Lets keep the US at the forefront of this space and ensure these tools remain available to traders like me. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Jacob Baldridge
