Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Zachary Wagner, and I'm just a regular guy from Texas who cares about having a fair shot at understanding the world around us. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516) because I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi, and I believe these markets are valuable and worth regulating properly, not banning or over-restricting.
I started using prediction markets a couple of years ago to get a better sense of election outcomes and other big public events. Honestly, I've found their forecasts to be way more accurate than what I hear from polls or pundits on TV. For example, during the last election cycle, Kalshi's prices on key races were closer to the actual results than most of the so-called experts. That kind of information isn't just helpful for traders like me; it's useful for anyone trying to make sense of what's coming next, whether you're a voter, a small business owner, or just curious.
What I appreciate most is that these markets are open to everyday folks like me. They're not some exclusive club for Wall Street types. I worry that if the CFTC clamps down too hard, it'll push these markets offshore to unregulated platforms where there's no oversight at all. I'd much rather trade on a regulated U.S. platform like Kalshi, where there are rules and protections in place, than take my chances with some sketchy foreign site. Plus, the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle issues like manipulation or insider trading. I trust you can use those existing powers without throwing the baby out with the bathwater.
Another thing that bothers me is hearing people call these event contracts "gaming." That's not what this is. When I trade on Kalshi, I'm doing research, weighing probabilities, and making judgments about real-world events, just like I would with stocks or commodities. These contracts have real economic purposes, like helping people hedge risks or get better information. They're not slot machines. And on top of that, I think the U.S. should be leading the way in financial innovation, not letting other countries take the reins while we drag our feet.
I noticed a few of your questions in the ANPR that hit on these points. For Question 7 on public interest, I think prediction markets clearly serve the public by providing better forecasts and democratizing access to information. For Question 15 on gaming, I strongly believe event contracts shouldn't be lumped in with gambling since they serve legitimate purposes. And for Question 33 on classification, I hope you'll treat these contracts in a way that keeps innovation alive in the U.S.
I urge you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Please don't ban or overly restrict them. Keep them safe and accessible for regular people like me, and let the U.S. stay a leader in this space.
Sincerely,
Zachary Wagner
