Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Christian Barrientos, and I'm a Human Resources professional from California. I'm writing to share my support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I've seen firsthand how these markets provide valuable information and opportunities that aren't available elsewhere. I believe the CFTC should regulate these markets proportionately, not ban or overly restrict them.
As someone in HR, I often deal with uncertainty around policies and events that impact employees, like elections or economic shifts. Prediction markets give me a clearer picture of what might happen, whether it's a new labor law or a change in federal policy. The forecasts on these platforms are often more accurate than polls or news pundits, and that helps me make better-informed decisions at work and in my personal life. Beyond that, these markets let regular people like me participate in a fair, legal way. Shutting that down would just keep the best information in the hands of big institutions, which doesn't seem right.
I'm also concerned about safety and fairness. Regulated platforms like Kalshi are much safer than unregulated offshore sites. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets, people will just turn to less secure alternatives, and that puts consumers at risk. I think the CFTC already has strong tools to handle issues like manipulation or insider trading. There's no need for broad bans when targeted rules can address specific problems. Plus, informed trading actually helps improve price discovery, which benefits everyone using the market, not just traders.
I also want to stress that event contracts aren't gambling. They serve real purposes, like helping individuals and businesses hedge against risks. For example, I've used prediction markets to offset potential impacts of election outcomes on my financial planning. This isn't a game; it's a tool. And on the global stage, the US should be leading in financial innovation, not falling behind by over-regulating a growing field.
Looking at some of the questions in the ANPR, I think Question 7 on balancing innovation and consumer protection hits the core issue. Regulation should protect users without stifling new ideas. Question 15 about defining gaming versus legitimate markets also matters to me; these contracts should be seen as economic tools, not games. And for Question 29 on inside information, I believe informed traders often make prices more accurate, as long as existing laws against insider trading are enforced.
I urge the CFTC to support prediction markets with fair, targeted rules that address risks without punishing the many for the actions of a few. Let's keep these markets accessible, safe, and innovative right here in the US.
Sincerely,
Christian Barrientos
