Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Kevin Carranza, and I'm a student based in Texas. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times myself, and I believe they serve a valuable purpose when properly regulated. I want to urge the CFTC to support a balanced approach that allows regular people like me to participate in legal, well-monitored markets without driving this activity into less safe, offshore spaces.
As a student, I've found prediction markets to be a unique way to engage with real-world events. Whether it's an election or an economic indicator, putting even a small amount of money on the line sharpens my focus and pushes me to research and think critically. It's not gambling to me; it's a learning tool that feels more grounded than just reading the news or following polls. I value the freedom to participate in these regulated markets, and I think many others do too. Banning or over-restricting them would take that opportunity away from everyday citizens and likely push activity to unregulated offshore platforms where there are no consumer protections at all.
I also believe the U.S. should be a leader in financial innovation. If we clamp down too hard on prediction markets, we're handing the future of this technology to other countries that are more willing to experiment and build. I've seen how platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, provide a safer and more transparent way to trade event contracts. Why would we want to drive users away from these regulated spaces to sketchy, overseas alternatives? Regulation should protect consumers, not eliminate options.
In response to some of the specific questions in the ANPR, particularly in Topic B on Public Interest (Questions 7-14), I think the CFTC should prioritize balancing innovation with consumer protection by ensuring markets remain accessible under clear, fair rules. And regarding Topic D on Procedural Aspects (Questions 23-28), I believe the CFTC should focus on categorical frameworks for regulation rather than case-by-case restrictions that could stifle growth.
I understand there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, but those issues are already illegal and can be addressed with the CFTC's existing authority. Shutting down or over-restricting prediction markets punishes everyone for the actions of a few bad actors. Instead, please focus on proportionate regulation that keeps these markets safe and open to people like me who use them responsibly.
Thank you for considering my perspective. I strongly encourage the CFTC to support well-regulated prediction markets and avoid bans or overly restrictive rules that would harm innovation and consumer choice.
Sincerely,
Kevin Carranza
