Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Alanna Foss, and I'm a student from Nevada. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi, and I believe that well-regulated prediction markets offer real value to people like me and to society as a whole. I hope my perspective as a young person engaging with these tools can help inform your approach.
I first got into prediction markets because I wanted to better understand how events like elections or economic reports could affect my future, whether it's job prospects after graduation or even just planning my budget. Trading on Kalshi has given me access to information and insights that I can't find in news articles or polls. The prices on these markets often seem to predict outcomes more accurately than so-called experts. This isn't just helpful for me; I think it provides better information for everyone, from regular citizens to policymakers who need to make informed decisions.
I also want to stress that event contracts aren't gambling, no matter what some critics say. They serve real economic purposes. For instance, I've used these markets to hedge against uncertainties like inflation reports that could impact my student loans or living costs. If businesses or individuals can use these tools to manage risks, that's a good thing. Calling this gambling feels like a misunderstanding of how much thought and research goes into trading, much like investing in stocks.
I'm also concerned about what happens if the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets. I've seen unregulated offshore platforms out there, and they don't have the safeguards that a regulated market like Kalshi offers. If you make it too hard to trade on legitimate platforms, people will just go to those riskier, less transparent sites. That seems like a step backward. Plus, I think the US should be a leader in financial innovation. We shouldn't let other countries take the lead on tools that can benefit so many.
Looking at some of the specific questions in the ANPR, Id like to address a few from Topic B on Public Interest, like Question 7 about balancing innovation and consumer protection. I believe regulated markets already strike that balance by providing oversight while allowing access. And for Question 12 on price discovery, I can say from experience that these markets give me data points I trust more than opinion pieces. On Topic C, Question 15 about defining gaming, I urge you not to label event contracts as gambling when they clearly have economic utility.
I ask that the CFTC support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Please don't ban or overly restrict them. Focus on targeted rules to address specific risks while letting these valuable tools grow under your oversight. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Alanna Foss
