Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Nischal Adhikari, and I'm a student from Idaho writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm relatively new to the concept of prediction markets, but as someone studying and thinking about how information shapes decisions, I strongly support their development under fair and balanced regulation.
I believe prediction markets offer something unique: better information for everyone. Unlike polls or pundit opinions, these markets pull together what people actually think by putting real money on the line. That kind of price discovery isn't just helpful for traders; it benefits the public, policymakers, and even students like me who are trying to understand complex issues. For example, during election seasons, I've noticed how often traditional forecasts miss the mark. If prediction markets can cut through the noise and give clearer signals about what might happen, that helps all of us make more informed choices, whether it's about politics, economics, or other big events.
I'm particularly drawn to the idea that informed trading makes these markets stronger. When people who know a lot about a topic participate, their insights improve the accuracy of the prices. This isn't a flaw; it's a strength. I understand there are concerns about insider trading or manipulation, and those need to be addressed. But the answer isn't to shut down or over-restrict these markets. The CFTC already has rules and tools to tackle bad actors in other financial markets, and I think those can be adapted here. Banning or limiting prediction markets because of a few potential risks would mean losing out on the benefits they bring to everyone else.
Looking at some of the specific questions in the ANPR, I want to touch on Question 7 under Public Interest. I think prediction markets do serve the public good by improving how we aggregate information, and that outweighs the risks if proper safeguards are in place. Also, regarding Question 29 under Inside Information, I believe informed traders often help price discovery, as long as their information isn't obtained illegally. The focus should be on enforcing existing laws against misuse of nonpublic information, not punishing the market itself.
As a student, I see prediction markets as a tool for learning and engagement too. They push people to research and think critically about the world. I hope the CFTC will support proportionate regulation that lets these markets grow while addressing real risks with targeted rules. Please don't ban or overly restrict them. Let's keep this space open for innovation and better decision-making.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Nischal Adhikari
