Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Hunter Wright, and I'm a healthcare professional from South Carolina. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi, and I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets in the United States.
As someone working in healthcare, I often face financial uncertainties tied to policy changes, like shifts in insurance regulations or funding for medical programs. Prediction markets have given me a way to hedge against some of these risks. For instance, I've used event contracts to offset potential impacts of federal policy decisions on my small business costs. This isn't just playing a game; it's a practical tool for managing real-world exposure, much like how farmers hedge crop prices. I also value the information these markets provide. I've found their forecasts on political and economic events to be far more accurate than polls or pundits, which helps me make better-informed decisions, both personally and professionally.
I believe prediction markets shouldn't be classified as gaming. They serve legitimate economic purposes, like price discovery and risk management. Trading on these platforms requires research and judgment, just like investing in stocks. Calling it gambling feels like a misstep when the data shows these markets often outperform traditional forecasting methods. I'm also concerned that banning or over-restricting them would push activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which are far less safe for consumers like me. I'd much rather trade on a CFTC-registered market like Kalshi, where there are protections in place, than take risks on some foreign site with no oversight.
On the topic of innovation, I think the US should be leading the way in financial tools like prediction markets, not ceding ground to other countries. I also support the idea that informed trading improves price discovery, as raised in your questions 29-32. When people with knowledge participate, the market prices reflect better information, which benefits everyone, not just traders. And regarding consumer protection, as mentioned in questions 7-14, I believe proportionate, targeted regulation is the way to go. Address specific risks like manipulation or insider trading with focused rules, not broad bans that punish law-abiding participants.
I'm not blind to the concerns about manipulation or insider trading, but the CFTC already has tools to tackle those issues in other markets. Use those same powers here. Don't shut down an entire system because of a few potential bad actors. I urge you to support regulated prediction markets with fair, balanced rules that protect consumers while allowing innovation and participation.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Hunter Wright
