Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Yash Kanwar, and I'm a trader and investor based in Ohio. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and I wanted to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets in the United States, and I hope my perspective as an everyday trader can help inform your approach.
I rely on prediction markets for information that I just can't get anywhere else. I've seen firsthand how their forecasts on elections and public events consistently outperform polls and pundits. For instance, during the last election cycle, Kalshi's market prices gave me a clearer picture of likely outcomes than any news outlet or survey. This isn't just useful for me as a trader; it's valuable for anyone trying to make sense of the world, whether they're in business, journalism, or just trying to plan ahead. I think this ties directly to your questions on public interest (Questions 7-9), where you're asking about price discovery and societal benefits. Prediction markets deliver real value here by aggregating information in a way nothing else does.
As someone who values the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets, I also worry about what happens if the U.S. over-restricts or bans these platforms. I've looked at unregulated offshore sites, and they're nowhere near as safe or transparent as a CFTC-registered market like Kalshi. If we push this activity overseas, traders like me lose protections, and the U.S. loses its edge in financial innovation. On that note, regarding your questions about innovation and competitiveness (Questions 33-35), I believe the U.S. should be a leader in this space, not cede ground to other countries. We have the chance to set the standard for how prediction markets operate globally.
Lastly, I want to highlight the practical side of these markets. They're not just about speculation. I've used them to hedge real risks tied to economic and political events that impact my investments and personal finances. This aligns with your questions on risk management (Question 10). For individuals and businesses, having a tool to offset uncertainty is huge, and it's a shame to limit that.
I understand there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and those are valid. But the CFTC already has tools to tackle those issues, and shutting down or over-regulating prediction markets punishes honest participants like me. I urge you to focus on proportionate rules that address specific risks without stifling the benefits.
Thank you for considering my input. I encourage the CFTC to support regulated prediction markets and ensure they remain accessible to traders like me while maintaining necessary oversight.
Sincerely,
Yash Kanwar
