Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Joseph Bickel, and I'm a trader and investor from Pennsylvania. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and I'm writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to your Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets provide unique value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I urge you to craft rules that allow them to thrive under fair oversight.
As a trader, I rely on prediction markets for information that I simply can't get elsewhere. The forecasts on platforms like Kalshi are often more accurate than polls or pundits, and that helps me make better decisions, not just in trading but in understanding the world. This isn't just about personal gain. When these markets aggregate information efficiently, everyone benefits, from regular folks to policymakers who need reliable data for public decision-making. I think the CFTC should recognize this value in price discovery when considering regulations under Topic B, especially Questions 7 and 8 about balancing innovation and public interest.
I also want to stress that regulated markets are far safer than the alternative. If you ban or over-restrict prediction markets, you're not stopping the activity, you're just pushing it to unregulated offshore platforms where there's no oversight. I've seen how sportsbooks in Pennsylvania limit winners, forcing me to split tiny bets across five different apps just to participate. Prediction markets, on the other hand, offer true peer-to-peer price discovery on real-world events, much like the stock market. Treating them as gaming, as discussed in Topic C, Question 15, misses the point. These event contracts serve legitimate economic purposes, like hedging and informed forecasting, and shouldn't be lumped in with gambling.
Another concern of mine is freedom. I value the ability to participate in legal, regulated markets as an individual trader. If the U.S. over-regulates or shuts down these platforms, we're not just losing a tool for better information, we're also ceding leadership in financial innovation to other countries. I'd hate to see that happen. The CFTC has a chance to set a global standard here, and I hope you'll take it by crafting proportionate rules rather than broad restrictions, as touched on in Topic F, Questions 33 and 35 about classification and regulatory costs.
I'm not blind to the risks of manipulation or insider trading, but the CFTC already has tools to address those issues. Use them instead of punishing everyone by limiting access. I strongly support regulations that protect consumers while preserving the ability of platforms like Kalshi to operate. Please don't let over-caution kill a market that offers so much potential for accurate forecasting and economic utility.
Thank you for considering my perspective. I urge you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets and avoid bans or excessive restrictions.
Sincerely,
Joseph Bickel
