Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Andrew Taylor, and I'm a student from Florida writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi, and I believe that well-regulated prediction markets are valuable for individuals like me and for society as a whole. I'm especially concerned about maintaining U.S. competitiveness in financial innovation, ensuring freedom to participate in legal markets, and improving the information available for public decision-making.
As a student, I find prediction markets fascinating because they often provide more accurate forecasts than traditional polls or pundits. I've seen this firsthand on Kalshi, where prices on events like elections or economic indicators cut through the noise of media speculation. This isn't just helpful for traders; it gives everyone, from journalists to policymakers, better data to work with. I think that's a public good worth protecting. Plus, participating in these markets has made me more engaged with real-world issues. I research, read, and think critically about events I'm trading on, which feels like a form of civic education.
I also strongly believe that regulated markets are the way to go. Platforms like Kalshi, under CFTC oversight, have clear rules and safeguards that make trading safer and more transparent. If we ban or over-restrict these markets, people won't just stop trading; they'll move to unregulated offshore platforms with no oversight. I've seen discussions online about these alternatives, and they worry me. Pushing activity offshore doesn't solve problems; it makes them worse. The U.S. should lead in financial innovation, not cede that ground to other countries. We have the chance to set a global standard here, and I hope we take it.
Regarding some of the specific questions in the ANPR, I want to address Question 7 on balancing innovation and consumer protection, and Question 29 on informed trading. On Question 7, I think proportionate regulation is key. Broad categorical bans punish everyone for the actions of a few bad actors. Instead, target specific risks like manipulation with focused rules. On Question 29, I believe informed trading actually improves price discovery. When people with knowledge trade, the prices become more accurate, and that benefits all participants, not just the traders. Existing laws already address insider trading by federal officials, so we don't need to overreact with sweeping restrictions.
I'm asking you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or overly restrict them. Let's keep these markets accessible, safe, and innovative under CFTC oversight. Thank you for considering my perspective as a student and active participant in this space.
Sincerely,
Andrew Taylor
