Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is John McDonald, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Massachusetts writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I believe these markets are valuable and worth regulating in a fair, balanced way. I want to urge the CFTC to support prediction markets with rules that protect users without shutting down access for regular people like me.
I've seen firsthand how prediction markets offer insights you can't get from polls or pundits. Whether it's an election or an economic event, the prices on these platforms often cut through the noise and give a clearer picture of what's likely to happen. This isn't just useful for traders; it's information that benefits everyone, from journalists to policymakers. I also value the freedom to participate in a legal, regulated market. If the CFTC bans or over-restricts these markets, I worry it will push activity to offshore platforms with no oversight. That seems far riskier than keeping things regulated here in the US.
Another point I feel strongly about is that event contracts aren't gambling. I put real thought into my trades, researching data and trends just like I would for any investment. These contracts serve a real purpose, like hedging against uncertainty in my life, whether it's a policy change or an economic shift. Calling this "gaming" doesn't make sense to me; it's a legitimate financial tool. And honestly, the US should be leading the way on this kind of financial innovation. We shouldn't let other countries take the lead while we fall behind with overly strict rules.
I noticed some of the CFTC's questions in the ANPR, like numbers 7 and 8 about balancing innovation and consumer protection, and number 15 on defining gaming versus legitimate markets. My take is simple: proportionate regulation is the answer. Target specific risks like manipulation or insider trading with focused rules, don't just ban whole categories of contracts. Broad bans punish regular folks like me who use these markets responsibly. The CFTC already has tools to handle bad actors, so let's use those instead of shutting everything down.
I'm just one person, but I hope my perspective matters. Prediction markets give me a way to engage with the world, make informed decisions, and sometimes protect myself from uncertainty. I ask that the CFTC regulate these markets in a way that keeps them safe but also keeps them open to everyday citizens. Please don't ban or over-restrict something that's working for so many of us.
Sincerely,
John McDonald
