Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Mikel Wallen, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Kentucky writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times myself, and I strongly support regulating them in a fair and balanced way, rather than banning or over-restricting them.
I believe prediction markets are valuable for a few key reasons. First, they give us information that's hard to find anywhere else. I've seen firsthand how their forecasts often beat out polls or pundits when it comes to predicting election outcomes or economic trends. That kind of insight isn't just helpful to traders like me; it's useful for the public, journalists, and even policymakers who need reliable data to make decisions. There's solid academic research backing this up too, showing how these markets aggregate information efficiently. I think the CFTC should consider this public benefit seriously, especially when looking at questions 7 and 8 in your ANPR about balancing innovation with consumer protection.
I'm also concerned about freedom and fairness. As a regular person, I appreciate being able to participate in legal, regulated markets. If we over-restrict or ban these platforms, it won't stop the activity. It'll just push people to unregulated offshore sites where there's no oversight at all. I'd much rather see the CFTC keep these markets here in the US, under your watch, where rules can protect participants. This ties into question 14 about public interest, and I think keeping markets domestic serves that interest far better than driving them away.
Another point I feel strongly about is that event contracts aren't gambling. They serve real economic purposes, like helping people hedge risks or discover accurate prices for uncertain events. I've used them to get a sense of risks that affect my own financial planning, and that takes research and judgment, not luck. Classifying this as "gaming" undercuts its value, and I urge you to look at questions 15 and 16 to define these markets properly.
Lastly, I believe the US should be a leader in financial innovation. We shouldn't let other countries take the lead on something this promising. Plus, informed trading in these markets actually helps everyone by making prices more accurate, not less. This speaks to questions 29 and 30 on inside information, and I think the CFTC should focus on enforcing existing laws against bad actors rather than restricting the whole market.
I hope you'll consider my perspective as a regular Kentuckian who sees real value in prediction markets. Please support proportionate regulation that allows these markets to thrive under clear, fair rules, without broad bans or overly tight restrictions. Thank you for taking the time to read this.
Sincerely,
Mikel Wallen
