Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Kameron Martinez, and I'm just a regular citizen from Texas writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I think theyre valuable, and I hope the CFTC will craft rules that let people like me keep participating in a safe, legal way.
I got into prediction markets because they give me a way to engage with events that affect my life, like elections or economic decisions, while also putting some skin in the game. Its not gambling to me. It takes real research and thought, just like when I decide where to put money in stocks or other investments. Classifying event contracts as "gaming" feels wrong because they serve a real purpose, helping me and others hedge risks or make sense of uncertain outcomes. Im not just betting for fun; Im trying to protect myself and understand the world better.
What worries me is the idea of over-restricting or banning these markets. Ive seen unregulated offshore platforms out there, and theyre nowhere near as safe as a CFTC-regulated market like Kalshi. If the rules get too tight, people wont stop trading; theyll just go to those sketchy sites instead. The CFTC already has strong tools to fight manipulation and insider trading in other markets. I believe those can work here too, without shutting down something thats working for regular folks like me. Banning or over-regulating punishes the wrong people and pushes activity to less safe places.
I also think the US should be a leader in financial innovation. We shouldnt let other countries take the lead on something as cutting-edge as prediction markets. Plus, when informed traders participate, it makes the prices more accurate, which helps everyone, not just those of us trading. Its information I cant get from polls or news, and thats a public good.
Looking at some of the questions in the ANPR, I want to weigh in on a couple. On Question 15, about defining gaming versus legitimate markets, Id say event contracts arent gaming when theyre tied to real-world outcomes with economic impact, like policy changes or inflation numbers. And on Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think the answer is clear: regulate proportionately with the tools youve got, dont restrict access for law-abiding citizens.
Im asking the CFTC to support fair, proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Please dont ban or over-restrict them. Keep platforms like Kalshi accessible to everyday people under strong but reasonable oversight. Thats the best way to protect us and keep the US ahead.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Kameron Martinez
