Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Michael Ahovey, and I'm a trader and investor based in Texas. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times myself, and I strongly support the idea of having these markets regulated in a fair and balanced way, without heavy-handed restrictions that shut regular folks like me out.
As someone who spends a lot of time analyzing markets and making investment decisions, I see real value in prediction markets. They're not just a niche hobby; they provide unique information that I can't get from news or polls. I've used them to gauge outcomes on things like economic policy changes that could impact my portfolio. The prices in these markets often cut through the noise and give a clearer picture of what's likely to happen. That benefits not just traders like me, but anyone who needs reliable forecasts, from businesses to everyday citizens.
What I care about most is the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. I don't think it's right to lock regular people out of these platforms while big institutions get to play. Prediction markets let me hedge real risks, like how a federal policy shift or election result might hit my investments or taxes. For small businesses here in Texas, it's the same deal. They can use these markets to protect against uncertainties, like regulatory changes or trade policy shifts that affect their bottom line. This isn't gambling; it's a practical tool, just like trading futures or options to manage risk.
I understand there are worries about manipulation or insider trading, and those are valid concerns. But the CFTC already has laws and tools to tackle those issues. Insider trading is illegal, whether it's in stocks or prediction markets. Market manipulation is illegal too. Instead of banning or over-restricting these markets, I think the focus should be on enforcing the rules that are already there. Shutting down prediction markets to stop a few bad actors would be like closing the stock market over a handful of cheaters. It punishes the rest of us who are using these tools responsibly.
I'm particularly drawn to Questions 7 and 8 from your ANPR, about balancing innovation with consumer protection and how prediction markets serve the public interest. I believe well-regulated markets encourage innovation and give people like me a fair shot at managing risk, while still allowing the CFTC to step in when needed. Regulated platforms are also a lot safer than pushing activity to offshore, unregulated sites.
I urge you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or overly restrict them. Let individuals and businesses continue to use these tools to navigate uncertainty, while using your existing authority to address any misconduct. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Michael Ahovey
